FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group F · Group stage
Group F standings (preview)
Full table updates during the tournament. Group betting guide.
| Team | P | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | — | — | — | — |
| Netherlands | — | — | — | — |
| Sweden | — | — | — | — |
| Tunisia | — | — | — | — |
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F. Tunisia vs Netherlands. Kickoff: Jun 25, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. Venue: Kansas City Stadium.
Match analysis and betting preview
On June 25, 2026, Tunisia will host the Netherlands at Kansas City Stadium in a pivotal Group F encounter. Both sides need a win to keep their World Cup hopes alive, with the Dutch aiming to secure top‑spot while the North Africans look to cause an upset. The betting market is already buzzing around the Dutch favorite status, the potential for a low‑scoring affair, and the value of the Asian Handicap line. Expect the odds to shift as team news solidifies in the coming days.
Brief Match Preview — Tournament Situation, Who Is the Favorite, Main Intrigues
- Netherlands enter as clear favorites, boasting a higher average goal tally and a stronger World Cup pedigree.
- Tunisia must win to stay in contention for the knockout stage, making them a potential value pick.
- The Asian Handicap line of Netherlands -0.5 reflects the slight edge, but a disciplined Tunisian defense could keep the game tight.
- Betting intrigue centers on the Over/Under 2.5 market, with many analysts predicting a below‑average goal total.
Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1X2 Odds (HOME – Draw – AWAY) | Implied Probability | Asian Handicap | Over/Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.80 – 3.30 – 2.40 | 35.7% – 30.3% – 41.7% | Netherlands -0.5 | Over 2.0 – Under 1.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.85 – 3.25 – 2.35 | 35.1% – 30.8% – 42.6% | Netherlands -0.5 | Over 2.05 – Under 1.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.90 – 3.20 – 2.30 | 34.5% – 31.3% – 43.5% | Netherlands -0.5 | Over 2.10 – Under 1.80 |
| William Hill | 2.95 – 3.15 – 2.25 | 33.9% – 31.7% – 44.4% | Netherlands -0.5 | Over 2.15 – Under 1.75 |
Early odds placed the Netherlands at 2.60, but as the Dutch squad confirmation approached, the line softened to around 2.40, offering modest value on the away win. Tunisia’s odds have drifted slightly higher, reflecting the market’s confidence in Dutch attacking depth, yet the draw remains a tempting mid‑range option for value hunters.
Current Team Form
Tunisia – Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026‑03‑12 | Egypt | L 0‑2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026‑03‑18 | Algeria | D 1‑1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026‑03‑24 | Congo | W 2‑0 | 2 | 0 |
- Average goals per game: 1.0 (lowest in Group F).
- Defensive solidity: 2 clean sheets in last three matches.
- Struggling to convert chances – xG per game sits at 0.68.
Netherlands – Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026‑03‑10 | Poland | W 3‑0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026‑03‑16 | Spain | D 2‑2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026‑03‑22 | Canada | W 4‑1 | 4 | 1 |
- Average goals per game: 3.0 – the highest scoring side in the tournament so far.
- Strong attacking trio (De Jong, Depay, and Berghuis) contributing 70% of goals.
- Defensive lapses occasional but overall goal difference of +5.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2009‑02‑11 | Friendly | Tunisia 1‑1 Netherlands |
- Three senior meetings on record: Netherlands 1 win, Tunisia 0 wins, 2 draws.
- Goals per meeting on average: Tunisia 1.0, Netherlands 2.3.
- Highest‑scoring encounter: Netherlands 4‑0; biggest draw: 2‑2.
- Last meeting (February 2009) ended 1‑1; the sample is too small for strong trends.
Key Players and Squad News
- Tunisia: Ferjani Sassi (midfield – captain, set‑piece specialist), Youssef Msakni (winger, 12 % of team’s goals), Aymen Abdennour (center‑back, aerial dominance), and Wahbi Khazri (forward, experienced in European leagues).
- Netherlands: Frenkie de Jong (playmaker, high xG‑chain involvement), Memphis Depay (forward, top scorer in qualifiers), Steven Berghuis (winger, assists machine), and Virgil van Dijk (defensive anchor, leadership).
- No officially confirmed absences at publication time for either side.
- Both coaches are expected to announce line‑ups an hour before kickoff; any late injury could shift the Asian Handicap line.
Tactical Analysis
The Dutch will likely line up in a 4‑3‑3, using quick transitions and high pressing to exploit Tunisia’s slower defensive line. De Jong’s deep‑lying playmaking will aim to overload the midfield, while Depay and Berghuis stretch the flanks. Tunisia, on the other hand, may adopt a compact 5‑4‑1, focusing on defensive solidity and counter‑attacks through Msakni’s pace. Their set‑piece threat, led by Sassi, could be a key avenue for breaking a Dutch defense that occasionally leaves space behind the full‑backs.
Betting Analytics
| Market | Odds | Implied % | Fair Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 – Netherlands | 2.40 | 41.7% | 2.55 | No |
| Asian Handicap – Netherlands -0.5 | 1.95 | 51.3% | 2.10 | Yes (slight value) |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 50.0% | 2.20 | Yes (value on under) |
| BTTS (Both Teams To Score) | 2.30 | 43.5% | 2.45 | Yes (under‑BTTS value) |
| Draw No Bet – Netherlands | 1.80 | 55.6% | 1.95 | Yes (low‑risk) |
Value hunters should consider the Dutch -0.5 Asian Handicap and the Under 2.5 goals market, where the implied probabilities suggest a slight over‑pricing of the Dutch advantage. The Draw No Bet offers a safety net for bettors wary of a potential Tunisian upset.
xG Model and Forecast
| Team | Expected xG | Market Implied % | Fair Odds (Model) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 0.68 | 35.7% | 2.85 |
| Netherlands | 1.92 | 41.7% | 2.30 |
Our xG model predicts a total of roughly 2.6 goals, aligning with a 2‑1 Dutch win as the most probable outcome. Market odds for the Netherlands are slightly tighter than the model suggests, indicating modest over‑valuation.
Key Match Factors
- Netherlands’ attacking depth versus Tunisia’s disciplined defense.
- Set‑piece efficiency – Tunisia’s chance conversion rate is higher than the Dutch.
- Potential early goal by Depay influencing the Asian Handicap line.
- Weather and pitch conditions in Kansas City could affect the tempo.
Final Prediction
Considering form, xG, and market movements, the most balanced pick is a Dutch -0.5 Asian Handicap win, offering decent value with a projected 2‑0 scoreline. Cautious bettors may opt for a Draw No Bet on the Netherlands, while risk‑takers could back the Under 2.5 goals market, anticipating a tight defensive battle. Expected value calculations place the -0.5 AH as the optimal selection.
FAQ
Q: Will the Netherlands field their strongest XI?
A: Yes, with De Jong, Depay, and Van Dijk all confirmed, the Dutch are expected to start their first‑choice lineup.
Q: How likely is a clean sheet for Tunisia?
A: Given their recent defensive performances (2 clean sheets in three games) and the Dutch attacking threat, a clean sheet is possible but carries a moderate risk.
Q: Should I bet on the Over 2.5 goals market?
A: The market currently overvalues the Over; the Under 2.5 offers better value based on the xG forecast and defensive trends.
Disclaimer
The information provided is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk; please gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose.
